Project Theme: Mathematical Epidemiology and Disease Spread Modeling

Nosocomial amplification resulted in nearly 200 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) during the 2015 South Korean MERS-coronavirus outbreak. It remains unclear whether certain types of cases were more likely to cause secondary infections than others, and if so, why. Publicly available demographic and transmission network data for all cases were collected from the… more

SNEEZING/COUGHING?EXPERIENCING COLD/FLU SYMPTOMS?You may be eligible to participate in this ongoing 2020 study: TO VOLUNTEER: CLICK HERE!  SNEEZING/COUGHING? WITH COLD/FLU SYMPTOMS? YOU ARE NEEDED! Common respiratory diseases such as influenza, caused by a family of RNA viruses, continue to induce a major burden on the US and the world, causing three to five million cases per year with severe cases amounting to more than 500,000… more

H5N1 influenza virus is now endemic in many regions of the world. Outbreaks continue to occur with dev- astating impacts to the local economies and threatening human health. The transmission of the virus involves a complex interplay between the spatio-temporal dynamics of the potential avian hosts, the ecology of the virus and poultry farming and… more

Virulent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) since 2005 have raised the question about the roles of migratory and wild birds in the transmission of HPAI. Despite increased monitoring, the role of wild waterfowl as the primary source of the highly pathogenic H5N1 has not been clearly established. The impact of outbreaks of HPAI… more

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 remains a threat for both wild and domestic bird populations, while low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) strains have been reported to induce partial immunity to HPAI in poultry and some wild birds inoculated with both HPAI and LPAI strains. Here, based on the reported data and… more

We investigate the role of migratory birds in the spread of H5N1 avian influenza, focusing on the interaction of a migratory bird species with nonmigratory poultry. The model is of patch type and is derived with the aid of reaction-advection equations for the migratory birds in the air along the flyways. Poultry may reside at… more

Mass-vaccination campaigns are an important strategy in the global fight against poliomyelitis and measles. The large-scale logistics required for these mass immunisation campaigns magnifies the need for research into the effectiveness and optimal deployment of pulse vaccination. In order to better understand this control strategy, we propose a mathematical model accounting for the disease dynamics… more